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Prediction for CME (2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-15T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41801/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and the north in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a region of dimming seen centered at approximately S05W30 beginning at approximately 2025-10-15T14:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUVI 195. This dimming is also accompanied by wide opening field lines seen in GOES SUVI 195, 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-18T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-18T15:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2025 Oct 17 1235 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51017
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Oct 2025, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 023 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 021

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an
M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5811) peaking on October 17 at 01:28 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This is the most complex on disk and was responsible for all of the M-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248), another complex region on disk, was stable. A new region rotated over the east solar limb and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 672 (NOAA Active region 4256). The remaining regions on disk were mostly quiet and either stable or in decay.
The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: The partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) directed the west that was reported yesterday, first detected in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 15:00 UTC on October 15 has been further analysed and a glancing blow may be possible from late on October 18.
No new Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Lead Time: 19.18 hour(s)
Difference: -10.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-17T10:04Z

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